F-22 vs. A-10 vs. Megatron

Is the Air Force too casual about the threat posed by giant metal robots?

As we speak, [Michael] Bay is shooting a sequel that has even more U.S. military hardware on display, according to USA Today. The director set up shop at White Sands, a test range in New Mexico, standing in for Egypt, where the new movie's climactic battle takes place. "As far as I know, this is the biggest joint military operation movie ever made," said Bay's liaison officer from the Army.

The list of military assets for the White Sands shoot included:

two A-10 Thunderbolt II "Warthog" tank-killing jets; six F-16 Fighting Falcons; 10 armored Humvees; the Army's Golden Knights parachute team; two Abrams tanks; two Bradley tanks; two missile-launcher vehicles; two armored personnel carriers; and a quarter-mile of the missile testing range, cleared of unexploded ordnance ...

To which the intrepid J. responds in comments:

I saw this covered in Entertainment Tonight a while ago. In all seriousness, I want to know why the AF would use F22s and not use A10s, which would seem to be much more capable against giant metal robots. That is, other than the obvious reason that the AF wants Congress to buy more F22s and not more A10s.

Several issues...

1. Michael Bay's affection for the F-22 is another reason to hate Michael Bay.
2. I would imagine that an A-10 would be superior against any ground based Transformer; however, since Starscream is, actually, an F-22, it'd probably be best to leave his destruction to other F-22s. Or Su-30s, or something.
3. I cannot believe that I'm actually going to see this movie, in spite of hating everything else Michael Bay has made and hating the first film. God, I hate Michael Bay.

Hat tip to JM.

Highlights of '08: Time to Think the Unthinkable

Grant Clelland at Financial Times believes that here are any number of ways that the economy can be stimulated including:

• Invading Mars
• Building Pyramids, or
• Tunneling to Australia
  
  Plus some ideas that are not as creative and probably not as effective.

I believe at least one of these ideas was stolen from Frank J at IMAO who first proposed
A Realistic Plan for World Peace
a.k.a
Nuke the Moon

But hey, that was back in 2002 and deserves to be resurrected. And invading Mars is way different.

This Makes Me Wonder About a Ground Offensive

The ante is rhetorically upped:

“The goal of the operation is to topple Hamas,” Haim Ramon, the deputy to Ehud Olmert, the Prime Minister, said. It was the first time since it launched its blistering offensive that Israel has openly stated that regime change is its ultimate goal. “We will stop firing immediately if someone takes the responsibility of this government, anyone but Hamas,” Mr Ramon said. “We are favourable to any other government to take the place of Hamas.”

It was not clear which party could take control if Israel succeeds in removing the Islamists. The only other party with experience of rule is Fatah, the secular movement that favours peace talks with Israel. But it is unpopular with many Palestinians, who see it as corrupt and ineffective, and was driven by Hamas from Gaza in battle 18 months ago.

Ehud Barak, the Defence Minister, said Israel was in an “all-out war against Hamas”, while Brigadier-General Dan Harel, the Israeli deputy chief of staff, said that his forces would erase every trace of Hamas from Gaza’s crowded cities. “After this operation there will not be a single Hamas building left standing in Gaza, and we plan to change the rules of the game,” the general said. “We are hitting not only terrorists and launchers, but also the whole Hamas Government and all its wings. We are hitting government buildings, production factories, security wings and more.”

Again, I'm skeptical that Hamas can be dislodged through airstrikes. I'm guessing that the IDF is also skeptical of this; it would only be sensible of them to be so. I suppose it's possible that the IDF could pound Hamas so badly that even a backing away from these statements (and accepting a cease-fire without the removal of Hamas) would be perceived as an Israeli victory, but I don't really see it. A ground offensive can certainly remove Hamas from power in the sense that the Israelis can install Fatah or simply govern Gaza directly, but both of these seem to be short term options; Hamas supporters will remain underground in an Israeli or Fatah controlled Gaza, and I'm guessing that Fatah's long term political position in Palestinian life will be further weakened by what amounts to open collaboration with the IDF.

...also see this Haaretz report on the possibility of a ground offensive. Hamas is reportedly "hoping" for a ground offensive; I can see long term political gains in that event, but I really can't see Hamas being able to prevent the IDF from seizing all of Gaza in the short run.

Just To Add

...to the points Drezner makes about this silly column, let's start with this argument from Sherdian:

What’s wrong here is obvious. It’s also not really new. Unlike the NFL, NBA and NHL, baseball has no salary cap. Those leagues do not have caps for the sheer, unbridled joy of finding loopholes and exceptions. They have them as part of an effort to maintain some kind of competitive balance among teams from different-size markets in disparate parts of the country.

Ah, yes, like most sportswriters, Sheridan would seem to be a puke funnel for the extremely wealthy people who own professional sports teams. At this point, let us summarize the central reasons for salary caps in pro sports:

• To increase the amount of money owners get to keep.
• There is no #2.

If the policy objective is to ensure competitive balance, then the key is to equalize revenues, not salary expenses. The NFL, in fairness, does a lot of this, but this makes its salary cap largely superfluous for reasons other than suppressing player salaries (and given the short careers of NFL players and the effects of playing on their bodies, this suppression is an absolute disgrace any rational person should be embarrassed to defend.)

On a related point, Sherdian's whining about high-salaried baseball players because we're in a recession is a transparent (though beloved by many sportswriters and fans) non-sequitur. If I may be permitted to state the obvious, capping player salaries doesn't affect the total revenue earned by professional sports one iota. The only question here is how much money goes to the players and how much goes to the owners. How the Steinbrenner family keeping more money and C.C. Sabathia keeping less would help laid off autoworkers or underpaid teachers or whatever other group you care to name I can't tell you.

Syllabus Bleg

Each spring, I have to teach an introductory, interdisciplinary social science course with the banal title, "Reading and Writing in the Social Sciences." In years past, we've spent most of our time reading a selection of journal articles from the various disciplines in my program (i.e., history, poly sci, anth, sociology, psych and econ) and writing critical essays, book reviews, etc. Its a required course for our major, and students are about as enthusiastic about it as you'd expect them to be. This year, in the interest of making things a little more lively, I'm going to try and incorporate some academic blogs into the mix.

I figure for history, I'll have students read Civil War Memory, or Rustbelt Intellectual, or any number of other sites. For econ, maybe Brad DeLong and Marginal Revolution among others (maybe Krugman and Freakonomics, too). For political science, maybe PoliBlog, The Monkey Cage, and of course American Power.

But what about psychology, sociology and anthropology? I suppose I could always have students poke through thae Academic Blog Wiki to find something they like, but I'm wondering if any of you folks have suggestions to get us/me started...

Aeon Skoble: Rear Window - Looking at Things Ethically

"Rear Window: Looking at Things Ethically"
by Aeon Skoble
Open Court Books



In this podcast, Aeon Skoble looks at Hitchcock's famous thriller Rear Window and unearths a perplexing ethical scenario. Is protagonist Jeff in the wrong when he snoops on a neighbor, even though his snooping leads to the apprehension of a crazed murderer?



To Listen to the Episode

Indigenous Internationalism

A

Putting gender equity front and center

Two new posts on this topic are up at the new home of Heidi Li's Potpourri

Is UAW Violating Rights Owed to Retirees?

The UAW continues its descent into obsolescence today with an announcement that it will offer more concessions to help the Big Three bosses secure a safe and happy retirement.?

At the heart of the latest offer, however, appears to be a violation of the fiduciary obligations owed to retired auto workers.?

Last year, the UAW allowed the Big Three to shift retiree health care off its balance sheets into a new entity called a Voluntary Employee Beneficiary Association, or VEBA. The companies were obligated to fund the VEBA's with billions in cash, securities and other obligations.?Some of the money made it in before the current crisis.?

But now the New York Times is reporting that the UAW, without any right to do so, is offering to allow the Big Three to delay the much needed future financial flows to the VEBA's. These are the same VEBA's that were sold as "secure for 80 years" by the UAW when it wanted rank and file ratification of the most recent collective bargaining agreements.

In theory, the VEBA's are independent trusts, controlled by a board of trustees that owes a fiduciary duty to the beneficiaries of the trust, current and future UAW retirees.?

The fiduciary obligations of a trustee are the strongest known in American law. In the landmark case of Meinhard v. Salmon in 1928, then Judge Cardozo described this solemn obligation thus:

"Many forms of conduct permissible in a workaday world for those acting at arm's length, are forbidden to those bound by fiduciary ties. A trustee is held to something stricter than the morals of the market place. Not honesty alone, but the punctilio of an honor the most sensitive, is then the standard of behavior. As to this there has developed a tradition that is unbending and inveterate."

There is no evidence that the trustees of the Big Three VEBA's have met this long established obligation in the unilateral decision by UAW President Gettelfinger to announce delays of funding to the VEBA's. Current and future retirees should be outraged.

If this is the way in which the private sector deals with retiree health care at our most important corporations, what chance is there for a genuine national solution to the health care crisis?

Auto Union Says It Would Consider Reopening Contract - NYTimes.com

Is it Morally Wrong to Cheer for Oklahoma State?

The answer is yes; it is Evil to cheer for Oklahoma State against Oregon. Against the Sooners, I'll allow, it wasn't so Evil. But against the Ducks, yes.

Lessee.... two teams with high powered offenses and no defenses to speak of... I'm going to say Oregon 55-Oklahoma State 44. Take the Ducks and the points, and definitely take the over.

...when you're right 50% of the time, you're wrong 50% of the time. At least I got the important part right.

From Colony to Superpower VIII: American Century

Chapter VIII of From Colony to Superpower deals with the second Cleveland and first McKinley administrations, covering the Spanish-American War and the beginning of serious US involvement with China.

Herring touches on the influence of Alfred Thayer Mahan, but I think he gives insufficient attention to the US military buildup between 1893 and 1898. As we discussed last time, the USN in 1890 was demonstrably inferior to even second tier European navies. By 1898 it was capable of crushing the Spanish Navy (really at the bottom of the second tier) and was competitive with any force not named the Royal Navy. The development of the Army was somewhat slower. Herring goes pretty easy on the performance of the Army in the Philippines, although (unsurprisingly, given his thesis) he doesn't waste time implying that the Spanish-American War was anything but an imperial project. I think a fair argument could be made that an independent Philippine Republic would have fallen victim to either German or Japanese imperialism, but of course this didn't require a long term occupation by the United States; a defensive treaty allowing for some military cooperation would have sufficed.

Herring briefly mentions the issue of post-war military reconciliation. He suggests that the Spanish-American War provided military professionals from the North and South with an opportunity to heal the rift, so to speak. This is an issue that I'm quite interested in, but unfortunately know almost nothing about. The timeline doesn't seem quite right to me; some very senior officers in the Spanish-American War must have served in the Civil War, but the numbers would be quite small. I would imagine also that the Indian Wars would have served as the cauldron in which the US Army was, so to speak, reforged. But maybe not; I'll be tracking down some of the cites that Herring gives on this point.

Herring also gets into US involvement with China, including participation in the suppression of the Boxer Rebellion. American missionaries and merchants had already extensively visited China, but the late McKinley administration made the first serious efforts at military and political involvement. US concern was motivated mainly by the need to maintain access to China, and thus to prevent its direct partition by Japan, Russia, and the European powers. Although Americans tended to interpret this as altruistic, this belief was not shared by the Chinese. The acquisition of the Philippines and the increased involvement of China were not, of course, coincidental.

More later on the Venezuela Crisis and the promotion of US ministers to ambassadorial rank...

Sam Huntington

It appears that Sam Huntington has passed. Soldier and the State is a fine book. Many of his other works I can't stand, to the point of repugnance. It's fair to say, though, that virtually every graduate student who has passed through a political science department had to deal with Huntington in some fashion.

And Again...

Some depressing holiday news:

Waves of Israeli aircraft swooped over the Gaza Strip on Saturday, firing missiles at Hamas’s security headquarters and killing more than 200 people, bringing the highest death toll in Gaza in years in a crushing response to rocket fire by Hamas against Israeli towns.

After the initial airstrikes, which also wounded about 600 Palestinians, dozens of rockets struck southern Israel. Thousands of Israelis hurried into bomb shelters amid the hail of rockets, including some longer-range models that reached farther north than ever before. One Israeli man was killed in the town of Netivot and four were wounded, one seriously.

A military operation against Hamas, the militant group that controls Gaza, had been forecast and demanded by Israeli officials for weeks, ever since a rocky cease-fire between Israel and Hamas broke down completely in early November and rocket attacks began in large numbers against Israel. Still, there was a shocking quality to Saturday’s attacks, in broad daylight on about 100 sites, as police cadets were graduating, women were shopping at the outdoor market and children were emerging from school.

The center of Gaza City instantly became a scene of chaotic horror, with rubble everywhere, sirens wailing, and women shrieking as dozens of mutilated bodies were laid out on the pavement and in the lobby of Shifa Hospital so that family members could identify them. The vast majority of those killed were Hamas police officers and security men, including two senior commanders, but the dead included several construction workers and at least two children in school uniforms.

By afternoon, shops were shuttered, funerals began and mourning tents were visible on nearly every major street of this densely populated city.

“Hamas was warned a few times in a variety of ways, but I can’t elaborate on the warnings,” said Maj. Avital Leibovich, a spokeswoman for the Israeli military. “Anything associated with Hamas is for us a legitimate target, including an apartment in which the basement is a weapons storehouse. This operation is not finished yet, but for now it involves only aircraft.”

Israeli airstrikes continued after dark, striking a metal foundry and other targets in southern Gaza, Palestinian officials said. Calls on both Israel and Hamas to refrain from further attacks were issued by Russia, Egypt and numerous governments in Western Europe, as well as the United Nations. The Bush administration urged Hamas to stop firing rockets, but called on Israel only to avoid hitting civilians as it attacked Hamas.

I don't really have much to add; I assume most of our readers will (like me) see the Israeli response as disproportionate and also see Hamas' apparent conviction that this time firing some rockets at civilian targets will achieve political and security goals is roughly as rational as the continuation of the American embargo against Cuba (even if the reverse of the power symmetry makes it more understandable.)

The Administration's Legacy

Tom Nichols looks at the foreign policy "orphans" of the outgoing administration:

Presidents are often remembered for the things they did, but like many administrations before his own, a significant part of George W. Bush's legacy might well lie with the things he failed to do. The Bush administration essentially "orphaned" several foreign policy issues after 2000 (relations with Mexico and Canada, and the environment, among others) but two are particularly important: tensions with Russia and the future of nuclear arms control.

He also warns us about expecting any sort of rapid change under the new team:

Barack Obama will not solve any of these problems in four, or even eight, years. They will haunt us long after the last American soldiers leave Iraq. They are problems we will bequeath to our children. That's why they're called "legacies."

Paul Richter also looks at what it being bequeathed to the incoming Administration:

As President Bush's term comes to a close, the United States has the world's largest economy and its most powerful military. Yet its global influence is in decline. The United States emerged from the Cold War a solitary superpower whose political and economic leverage often enabled it to impose its will on others. Now, America usually needs to build alliances -- and often finds that other powers aren't willing to go along.

Meanwhile, the clock is running out for using the line that there is only one president at a time--and it does appear that the Gaza situation is moving, perhaps to equal India-Pakistan, as the "crisis" that the new president will have to address from minute 1 after the Inauguration.

Fun Things in January

Here are a few things I am attending/involved in that are coming up in January.

• Macworld 2009, January 5-9, Moscone Center (San Francisco) -- Steve Jobs won't be there, but I will. Coincidence? I'll mostly be bugging iPhone developers. If that's you, then look out.
• BCS Championship Game, January 8 -- Oh, I wish I could say that I was going to be in Miami for this game. Instead I will just be at my house in San Jose, watching the Gators triumph.
• Java Community Process, 10th Birthday Party , January 13, Computer History Museum (Mountain View) -- Like other Silicon Valley JUG members, I got sent an invite for this little party. Democracy and Java, two killer ingredients for a party...
• Introduction to Scala for Java Developers, January 20, San Francisco JUG -- I get to talk about Scala along with Lift creator David Pollak and the venerable Bill Venners. Bring your Scala book for Bill to sign it.

The Year In Wingnuttery

A comprehensive roundup. It's hard to pick a favorite, but I'm tempted to go with the low-seeded "Fred Thompson, savior of the Republican Party"...

Retailers critical

It really is quite depressing. As if we have not lost enough of our long-standing high street retailers the Sunday Telegraph reports new signs of desperation with thousands of supermarkets, department stores and independent shops making plans to open up on Boxing Day for the first time.

This is despite the fact that shoppers were out in force yesterday, attracted by the huge discounts on offer. Similar scenes are expected today as retailers predict that sales will total £6 billion for the weekend. Fiona Wilkinson, from credit card company Visa Europe, told the paper that sales peaked at 12.15pm yesterday when the company recorded 700 transactions being made every second.

Experts say that so far the massive cost cutting has failed to increase shops' turnover. More than two thirds of stores saw their turnover fall in the first half of December and footfall was down 11.2 per cent last week compared to the same time last year.

A muddled head: lack of commentary on the Palestinian-Israeli situation

A

I Know; Let's Send a Message!!!

The New York Times shows the stupid:

But it has another goal as well: to expunge the ghost of its flawed 2006 war against Hezbollah in Lebanon and re-establish Israeli deterrence....“There has been a nagging sense of uncertainty in the last couple years of whether anyone is really afraid of Israel anymore,” he said. “The concern is that in the past — perhaps a mythical past — people didn’t mess with Israel because they were afraid of the consequences. Now the region is filled with provocative rhetoric about Israel the paper tiger. This operation is an attempt to re-establish the perception that if you provoke or attack you are going to pay a disproportionate price.”

Right; the Arabs sure did doubt the capability of Israel to pound the bejeezus out of a political actor with no defensive weapons. People were really fucking UNCLEAR about that point. Israel DID make Hezbollah pay a disproportionate price, but Hezbollah was perceived the victor because the IDF accomplished absolutely nothing else. One might even conclude that efforts to "send a message" don't always result in the receiving of the anticipated message...

The risk to Israel in Gaza seems of a parallel nature — that if the operation fails or leaves Hamas in the position of scrappy survivor or even somehow perceived victor, that it could then dominate Palestinian politics over the more conciliatory and pro-Western Fatah movement for years to come. Since Hamas, like Hezbollah, is committed to Israel’s destruction, that could pose a formidable strategic challenge.

Exactly how do people think this is going to end? Does anyone believe that these airstrikes are actually going to topple Hamas? Or that the IDF is going to invade Gaza and replace Hamas by brute force? If the IDF doesn't want to leave people with the impression that Hamas or Hezbollah can persevere through simple defiance, then it really needs to rethink its operational and strategic orientations.

Open discussion on Constellation situation and what it means for Nuclear

While this article in the Baltimore Sun initially focuses on job cuts, it later gives a good summary of the choices shareholders will have in deciding the fate of Constellation. Here is what I want to talk about:

The EDF proposal unveiled Wednesday called for selling half of Constellation's nuclear power assets to the French firm for $4.5 billion, including an immediate down payment of $1 billion in cash, and also selling several non-nuclear power plants to the company for as much as $2 billion. The rest of Constellation would remain roughly the same, publicly traded and operating out of its Baltimore headquarters.

So how does the fact that a French company is so keen to buy the nuclear assets, but not the entire company, play with a new administration that says it will address energy policy right away? How does it play with Wall Street investors? What would be the effect of a French company owning and operating nuclear power plants in the U.S.?

Discuss among yourselves...

Obama Family Friend Speaks Out: The Real Bill Ayers?

Bill: Thou doth protest too much, methinks.

Striking how he ignores his own written statement that he was "family friends" with Obama, that he and Obama ran the Chicago Annenberg Challenge including grants of a million dollars to ex-maoist and Ayers protege Mike Klonsky's Small Schools Workshop approved by Obama; and that far from "guilt by association" Ayers and Obama shared a common approach to education policy including what teachers union activists called "teacher bashing" interference in the governance of Chicago public schools.

And, of course, as reported here at Global Labor, Ayers and Obama continued a close relationship throughout the campaign including Ayers providing advice on appointments to the campaign and future administration.

Sure, just like "thousands" of others.....

Op-Ed Contributor - The Real Bill Ayers - NYTimes.com

Torture and Mitigation

A while ago, Ross Douthat wrote a meandering, self-indulgent post about his feelings on torture, suggesting that while he felt torture was bad, he could also understand why the Bush administration had ordered it, mainly because Douthat himself was kind of scared after 9/11. Glenn Greenwald wrote a fabulous post pointing out that every regime that tortures thinks that it has good reasons for torturing; the point is the crime, not the motivation. Dan Drezner and Josh Cohen talked a bit about torture on Bloggingheads, which led Glenn to write a distinctly less interesting post questioning whether the two were torture "mitigators". Glenn said yes, Dan said no, Josh said "what?", Glenn suggested that Dan (and I paraphrase) was a douche, and Dan suggested that Glenn (and I do not paraphrase) tortures puppies. I don't see it (the mitigation), but mileage may vary.

In the course of this, Glenn wrote:

More simplistic still is the very idea that the motives of Bush officials -- including Dick Cheney and Don Rumsfeld -- can be reduced to one clear and pure desire: To Protect Us. Even one's own motives, let alone those of others, are notoriously difficult to ascertain. The certainty claimed by those who are defending Bush officials about what their motives were in torturing is absurd. There are all sorts of reasons to believe that they were motivated, at least in part, by the power that comes from torture, or a desire for vengeance, or the belief that the detainees in our custody were sub-human, or just general indifference to law and morality. How have those ignoble motives been ruled out by their defenders and noble motives so emphatically embraced? Ultimately, though, the reason leaders torture is irrelevant. It's one of those few absolute taboos, and it's almost as immoral to seek to dilute that taboo by offering motive-based mitigations as it is to engage in it in the first place....
A "root cause" theory that is deemed unspeakably evil in American discourse when applied to non-Americans is immediately embraced by our elites when we need a way to explain the fact that our own leaders committed unambiguous war crimes.

I have mixed feelings on this. On the question of war crime guilt, I would agree with Glenn, although of course the issue of motivation touches on several aspects of any criminal proceeding. But it also seems that Glenn is suggesting that there's no utility in investigating the motivations behind torture; this may not have been his intent, but it's how I read the argument. I suspect that there's a disjuncture brought about by the difference between the academic and polemical worldview. From the polemicist point of view, it's quite sensible to invoke the unfair manner in which the "root causes" concept is deployed, and consequently to deny its utility altogether. As an academic, I'm thinking that if an inquiry into the root causes of terrorism or torture is useful for non-Americans, then it's probably useful for Americans, too. But allowing that, of course, reduces the polemical value of the assertion of criminality; this is true whether the assertion is being made about Americans or Cubans or Saudis or Zimbabweans. I should also note that it's not my intention to assess any value to either the polemical or academic project, although obviously I have sympathy with the latter.

Regarding those root causes, I can think of a number of ways in which investigating the source of American torture could bear fruit. For one, I have to wonder why "torture porn" seems to provide such a box office draw, and what the relationship is between such porn (and I think that the CSI franchise would be an example of soft core torture porn) and the acceptance of torture in the Bush administration. I'm interested in how the torture narrative developed within the Bush administration, because I'm extremely skeptical that enhanced interrogation methods (so to speak) are actually the result of a serious concern with the safety of Americans. This is to say that I don't really believe that the people who authorized such methods were primarily motivated by a "pure and clean desire to protect us" (not that it would matter in a criminal sense, anyway). Rather, I very much suspect that an understanding of "toughness" peculiar to the American Right, and in particular a desire to appear tougher than domestic liberals and foreign enemies, drove much of the consideration of the utility of torture. Joel Surnow, after all, put Jack Bauer on the torture train before the Bush administration opened Gitmo.

In some sense, it's easier to account for torture in Saudi Arabia, Cuba, or Zimbabwe, because the regime in each case understands that torture is useful for destroying opposition political movements, but not so much for gathering intelligence. There's at least, that is to say, a plausible connection between ends and means. In the American case not so much, and that's a puzzle. [in comments, Martin rightly calls me out on this; the use of torture in Afghanistan and Iraq is fairly straightforward torture for repression, and has a history in US foreign policy. What's puzzling is the narrative that connects torture with intelligence; this is where the means-end relationship breaks down.] It's a puzzle worth investigating, however; understanding the motivations of torturers is critical to understanding why torture happened here, and I daresay important to making sure it doesn't happen again. As such, the stories that torturers tell themselves are valuable, even (and perhaps especially) if those accounts are self-serving.

Music to their ears

Being the holiday season many of the feature articles are written before Christmas whilst journalists ready themselves for the festivities, and then are published whilst the self-same authors are working off the turkey in the local gym. Yesterday's Western Mail article on the music that inspires Assembly politicians is one such piece and it shows.

It is difficult to know what question the politicians in question were asked of course so it is unlikely to be their fault that the final result comes across as a bit of a parody of such end-of-the-year pieces.

Labour's John Griffiths for example was inspired by John Lennon’s Working Class Hero and Imagine and he wore Rock Against Racism and Nuclear Free Wales badges on his denim jacket, alongside a Che Guevara patch. I wonder whether he also went by the nickname of 'Wolfie'.

Mike German tells us that his political stance was influenced by Shostakovich’s seventh symphony, written and performed during the World War II siege of Leningrad. He said: “It gave me a sense of the resistance and defiance of totalitarianism which has strengthened my political creed that none shall be enslaved by conformity, and the pursuit of freedom which is such a pillar of Liberal Democracy.”

Whilst Jenny Randerson 'salutes the genius of the Beatles’ Eleanor Rigby. She said: “It’s all about the impact of loneliness and isolation.” Bethan Jenkins is invigorated by the Manic Street Preachers and is a particular fan of their song Socialist Serenade, whilst Joyce Watson says she has never forgotten the moment during the 2000 Labour Conference when Nelson Mandela made a surprise appearance and Gabrielle performed her hit Rise.

Hats off to Mick Bates though who treats the piece with the levity it deserves. He tells the reporter that on a desert island, he would hope to be able to listen to Bob Dylan, Elvis Presley, the Sex Pistols, Tito and Tarantula, and Pink Floyd. When feeling “miserable” and in need of sympathy he listens to Bob Dylan’s Tangled up in Blue. He turns to Dylan again when he needs to “go on the attack” and plays Hurricane, which depicts the arrest of black middleweight boxer Ruben Carter.

Maybe my problem is that I am tone-deaf, listen to loud raucuous rock music to help me stay awake on long journeys and have no musical soul whatsoever. I have certainly never been inspired to political action by a piece of music nor has a concert or rendition been linked in my mind with any momentous event.

In fact when it comes to great cultural feasts I have the attention span of a flea and need to digest great works in small chunks. This could be why I was not asked to participate in this survey.

Curmudgeon Cultural Commentary: Must-Flee TV

While trapped in a medical waiting room, and without my trusty TV-B-Gone, I was forced to watch a "news" report on an obscenely large screen TV. From "The Situation Room" (it must be important) came evaluations of President Bush's tenure as leader of the free world. A female, multiracial, preaternaturally attractive talking hairdo was consulting the sagacious, telegenic, ever-smiling wonder of political (and all other) commentary, the Reverend Pat Robertson. Of course, he was off-site, beamed in on his own screen. There were screens within screens within screens, that would make even Ezekiel's vision seem pedestrian.

Welcome to the culture of media interpretation: scene changes on multiple screens, sound bites, factoids, one-liners. Robertson gave Bush a C-. Well, that says it all. Eight years of presidential leadership on multiple fronts: the economy, the war on terrorism, tax reform, and much more. He gets a C-.

My wife and mused that many people approach reality through this medium. Several of those sitting near us stared, unblinking, unthinking, transfixed by vacuity. They vote. They have children and grandchildren. And preachers make this mode of sensation-manipulation (which has nothing to do with gaining knowledge) the model for preaching: fast-pasted, image-driven/riven (clips), skits, jokes, theologotoids, Bible-lite, jumbotroned, every hair in place.

Another day in the life of postmodern America. Time to listen to some John Coltrane.

No Endgame

I don't have many additional thoughts on the breaking of the Gaza ceasefire. The strategic aims seem clear; Hamas wished to provoke an Israeli attack in anticipation that the reaction will help Hamas seize control of the West Bank. Israel wants to damage Hamas' state infrastructure, and thus apply enough pain to the Palestinians that they move back towards Abbas, and incidentally give Kadima a chance to win the upcoming elections. Although Egypt and Abbas seem to be on board with the Israeli plan, I know which way I'm betting; people rarely respond to bombing by picking the more moderate option. I'm guessing that Hamas comes out of this stronger than before, although of course the Egyptian reaction could change things a bit by affecting Hamas logistical situation. Even then, though, the policy of the Egyptian government can be quite different than the actual behavior of the Egyptian border guards and inspectors who monitor commerce with Gaza.

The thing is, I very much doubt at this point that Hamas will ever become "a responsible partner for peace." That Hamas owes its position in Palestinian life to Israel doesn't really change this fact; after thirty years of claiming that the Palestinians have only maximal ends the Israelis successfully created a Palestinian group that has maximal ends. I could be wrong, of course, but I'm guessing that any relaxation of the siege of Gaza would be met by further Hamas-supported attacks on Israel, at least in the short term. In the longer term, hopefully people will get tired of all this.

I'll leave you with Spencer's thoughts:

Do you believe for a moment that leveling Gaza will stop the rockets? Well, then you've lost your right to call the peaceniks naive.

51 Percent

Learn more here and here.

Sunday morning reads from the new home of Heidi Li's Potpourri

If you are so inclined, have a look at this trio of interrelated posts, aimed at connecting the women's issues illuminated in this election with the larger issue of how to proceed to a more democratic democracy:

• Historical precedent for a new wave of empowerment for those left hungry for it by this election season
• The first group in the U.S. to wage a nonviolent civil disobedience campaign
• A song for this political season

Available at the new home of Heidi Li's Potpourri.

Charlton Heston? Really?

I have never pictured Jack Aubrey as looking even vaguely like Charlton Heston, but apparently Patrick O'Brian did. I suppose that I might be more open minded about that possibility if I hadn't seen Master and Commander before reading the first Aubrey-Maturin novel; the film obviously has its failings, but in general they concern the Maturin character (which is a completely and utterly different animal in the film than in the books), and the related issue of Aubrey being just a trifle too clever. Physically and in mannerism, though, I thought Crowe captured Aubrey almost perfectly. Even Crowe's performance in Gladiator isn't particularly Heston-esque, and his turn as Jack Aubrey just didn't remind me at all of Heston.

Nathan Cunningham: Sex, Drugs, and Identity Crisis: a response to Performance

(ENG 282 International Films Studies Student Response)

Sex, Drugs, and Identity Crisis: a response to Performance

By Nathan Cunningham



Performance is what your parents didn’t want you to see. It has every element that struck fear in the hearts of the parents of the late 1960’s. There was brutal violence, blatant drug use, open and uninhibited sexuality, forward thinking literature, and just a hint of gender confusion. Worst of all was the addition of counter culture icon Mick Jagger. Jagger plays a musician who has lost the ability to captivate crowds and maintain his popularity. The surprising thing about this film is that Jagger doesn’t make it into the movie until almost halfway though. This was an excellent choice to keep Jagger from really dominating the narrative. The main character of the film is a man named Chas. Chas is a better choice for the main role because he represents the typical upstanding, tough guy. The evolution of Chas’ character is one of the most compelling aspects of this film.

In the beginning of the film Chas is an adult bully. He takes pleasure in torturing others at every turn. If he is not berating his fellow employees about deceased loved ones, he is shaving a man’s head as a form or humiliation. Chas takes sadistic pleasure in what he does. Chas’ bloodlust comes to a terrible climax when he kills a man in cold blood. This forces Chas to go into hiding. Chas ends up staying with a man named Turner (Mick Jagger) and his female companionship. His new roommates change Chaz’s life forever.

The character of Chas is great because he represents the “square” crowd. Even though he was a criminal he was somebody the general population could somewhat identify with. Chas commits terrible acts, and seems to enjoy them. What is made clear though, is that Chas doesn’t believe is what he is doing. When Chas commits a brutal act, he is trying to show everyone who he is a loyal soldier. When in reality he is trying to convince himself. Every act of violence is and over-compensation. Many Americans and other people living in industrialized countries can identify with trading your own identity for what people think you are or should be. When Chas commits murder, he completely crosses the line into madness. Chas has become what he thinks his peers and his boss want him to be. Many people trade their individuality for the chance to be accepted by their peers. It is very interesting that this particular film deals with the issue of peer-pressure. In the late 60’s and 70’s the perception was (and still is) that peer-pressure would lead to drug use and premature sexual activity. Both sides, accepted society and the counter-culture, want you to be like them. This validates their lifestyle. So in an attempt to “fit in” we put on our performance. When Chas goes to live with Turner, he finds another man whose need to perform also drove him to the brink of madness.

Turner is a musician who has lost his ability to perform. He lost that dangerous and wonderful demon that drove him to greatness. Turner identifies with Chas because he too has been pushed to his breaking point by living a life on stage. Turner looks to self-medication to try and make his life better. He turns to the comforts of women and psychedelic drugs to escape the life he had once and can’t seem to recapture. Turner and Chaz explore each other’s mind with the help of hallucinogenic mushrooms. They share each other’s feeling and form a bond. During their “trip” Chas changes his look. He goes from clean cut blonde hair, to a large mop-top that sits wildly on top of his head. The new look represents a change in Chas’ life. He is becoming Turner, which is foreshadowing for the end of the film.

This movie is about the counter-culture, and how it attempted to save the world. The people of this movement believed they could convince a generation to embrace individuality. It took the ultimate sacrifice to save Chas. Turner gave up himself for Chas so that Chas could live his own life. This was not his only motive. Turner did it to find his demon. If Turner was going to live, he would have his means to uncover the madness he longed for. If he was going to be killed, he had done it to give a good man a chance.

Loyar burok

My lawyer Edmund Bon told me about www.loyarburok.com about a year ago. A group of young lawyers like him were planning to sit down one day and start launching their thoughts into cyberspace. I'm glad the site is up and running here.

Brush up your BM as well with Mr Bon's posting Majilis Peguam dibubarkan menjadi parti politik?:

Saya hanya ingin menyatakan bahawa persepsi bahawa Majlis adalah ‘anti-Melayu’ atau ‘anti-Bumiputera’ atau ‘anti-Islam’ adalah amat jauh dari realiti sebenarnya. Kami tidak pernah membuat keputusan atau bertindak atas kepentingan kaum atau agama, tetapi berdasarkan isu-isu sahaja.

Perlu diingati bahawa Majlis yang terdiri dari 36 ahli bukan satu golongan yang ‘mono-ethnic’ atau ‘mono-religious’. Ramai ahli Majlis adalah kaum Melayu dan/atau menganuti agama Islam, dan sebarang tomahan terhadap Majlis adalah tomahan terhadap setiap satu ahli Majlis Peguam.

Growing up in Singapore ...

".... we had to bear the scorn and barbs of the Chinese superiority complex and it irritates me when C. L. Sharma in her/his article "Ethnicity, Communal Relations and Education in Malaysia" (1979) described post-independence Malays as being "imbued with the 'we are the masters now' attitude which encourages them to display arrogance in their behaviour". This academic should be more objective and realise that Malays do not have a monopoly on arrogance." - Language Ding Dong by Anak si-Hamid

Chinese supremacy? Anak si-Hamid taught me at Jurong Secondary School. I remember short skirts and mini-compo. She came into Sec 3F in 1976 and played the Beatles' She's Leaving Home, except that we didn't know what it was at first. Take down the lyrics, kids, and write a composition based on the song.

Many of us 15-year olds fell in love with the English language that day.

The "scorn and barbs" in her little posting "Language Ding Dong" here (which was prompted by my own posting here, I'm proud to state) were still there when I was growing up in Singapore. Lessons in life, well learnt.

p.s. There is a book in Growing up in Singapore. I can see it. Not exactly like Wan Hulaimi's GUiT, but there's a great book in the making, nonetheless. Keen publishers, pls contact me.

Updates 16/12, 3 pm:
Related to my article, Ganesh sent me this piece The Charade of Meritocracy by Michael Barr.

Excerpt:

".......the playing field is hardly level. In fact, Singapore's system of promotion disguises and even facilitates tremendous biases against women, the poor and non-Chinese."

Click here to read the piece.

Obama Nation Stays Mum

I addressed the self exoneration of Team Obama in my previous post. The Laughter is Getting Louder

Hugh Hewitt prints some comments from a former Assistant US Attorney:

Obama is in Hawaii until Jan. 2 with no public events planned where he might be asked questions. Emanuel is in Africa where he is out of contact on a long planned family vacation.

Consider that again -- the incoming WH Chief of Staff, in a "change of parties" transition from one Presidency to the next which is less than 4 weeks away -- and he's in Africa??????

2008 was the year man-made global warming was disproved

Christopher Booker in the UK Telegraph:

Looking back over my columns of the past 12 months, one of their major themes was neatly encapsulated by two recent items from The Daily Telegraph.

The first, on May 21, headed "Climate change threat to Alpine ski resorts" , reported that the entire Alpine "winter sports industry" could soon "grind to a halt for lack of snow". The second, on December 19, headed "The Alps have best snow conditions in a generation" , reported that this winter's Alpine snowfalls "look set to beat all records by New Year's Day".

Easily one of the most important stories of 2008 has been all the evidence suggesting that this may be looked back on as the year when there was a turning point in the great worldwide panic over man-made global warming. Just when politicians in Europe and America have been adopting the most costly and damaging measures politicians have ever proposed, to combat this supposed menace, the tide has turned in three significant respects.

First, all over the world, temperatures have been dropping in a way wholly unpredicted by all those computer models which have been used as the main drivers of the scare. Last winter, as temperatures plummeted, many parts of the world had snowfalls on a scale not seen for decades. This winter, with the whole of Canada and half the US under snow, looks likely to be even worse. After several years flatlining, global temperatures have dropped sharply enough to cancel out much of their net rise in the 20th century.

Ever shriller and more frantic has become the insistence of the warmists, cheered on by their army of media groupies such as the BBC, that the last 10 years have been the "hottest in history" and that the North Pole would soon be ice-free – as the poles remain defiantly icebound and those polar bears fail to drown. All those hysterical predictions that we are seeing more droughts and hurricanes than ever before have infuriatingly failed to materialise.

Read the whole thing.

WaMu: The Power of Yes

This is a pretty remarkable story about Washington Mutual, though most of its particulars -- amphetamine-snorting mortgage supervisors aside -- won't be news to anyone who's ever listened to "The Giant Pool of Money" episode of This American Life.

During Mr. [Kerry] Killinger’s tenure, WaMu pressed sales agents to pump out loans while disregarding borrowers’ incomes and assets, according to former employees. The bank set up what insiders described as a system of dubious legality that enabled real estate agents to collect fees of more than $10,000 for bringing in borrowers, sometimes making the agents more beholden to WaMu than they were to their clients.

WaMu gave mortgage brokers handsome commissions for selling the riskiest loans, which carried higher fees, bolstering profits and ultimately the compensation of the bank’s executives. WaMu pressured appraisers to provide inflated property values that made loans appear less risky, enabling Wall Street to bundle them more easily for sale to investors.

“It was the Wild West,” said Steven M. Knobel, a founder of an appraisal company, Mitchell, Maxwell & Jackson, that did business with WaMu until 2007. “If you were alive, they would give you a loan. Actually, I think if you were dead, they would still give you a loan.”

Actually, the Wild West analogy, though alluring, is a false analogy. The actual "Wild West" was possible only in the absence of effective civic authority and the inability/unwillingness of federal and territorial officials to restrain and punish the avarice of those who intruded on the landscape. What happened in the financial world over the past fifteen years was more akin to the collapse of civilization following a zombie infestation or the oft-dreaded -- on this blog at least -- communion of monkeys and robots.

On a somewhat related note, it's worth mentioning a point that the Times article doesn't include, even though it compares WaMu to a "sweatshop" -- in addition to pushing through bad loans and treating their employees the bank also refused overtime pay to thousands of its employees. Here, the company's sins were not unique. Following the Bush-approved 2004 revisions to the Fair Labor Standards Act, mortgage lenders across the country were able to reclassify their sales forces as "administrative" workers who were no longer eligible for overtime. Obviously, changes to federal labor laws played at best a tertiary role in the financial crisis, but it's an issue that never receives mention in the press coverage. It's difficult to muster sympathy for the brokers who got rich off the scheme, but the fact remains that bad public policy allowed institutions like Washington Mutual and Countrywide to bugger the very employees who were helping them wreck the economy.

"Self-Liquidated"?

Russian submarine launched ballistic missile tests not going well:

“After its firing from the submarine Dmitry Donskoy, the Bulava missile self-liquidated and exploded into the air” - Russian MoD spokesman to Interfax 23 Dec 08

That's three successful launches out of eight tries. Three out of eight actually works in terms of nuclear deterrence, but you'd still like to see the success rate a bit higher. But more importantly, I'm going to try to work the term "self-liquidated" into as many conversations as possible over the next few days; it'll be my Christmas-Hannukah theme for 2008.

Christmas!

A happy one to all of our loyal (or intermittent) readership.

Mortgage Demand Up: Now What

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, mortgage applications hit a five year high last week.

U.S. mortgage applications surged to the highest level in over five years in the latest week, as potential borrowers came out in droves to refinance as government interventions helped push interest rates down to record lows, data from an industry group showed on Wednesday.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage applications, which includes both purchase and refinance loans, for the week ended Dec. 19 soared 48.0 percent to 1,245.4, the highest reading since the week ended July 18, 2003, when it reached 1,284.3.

Potential borrowers were lured by mortgage rates that have dropped dramatically since the Federal Reserve unveiled a plan last month to buy up to $500 billion of mortgage securities backed by government-sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Ginnie Mae. The program also entails buying up to $100 billion of debt issued by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Home Loan Banks.

Now, I have long said that the best way out of this recession is through another mini refinancing boom. On the other hand, I warned that manipulating mortgage rates would be a bad idea. I had hoped that the bad economy would drive rates down on its own. Now, it appears the Federal Government is motivated to do this on its own. Now, we will all see if I am right.

Now, the data is not very specific. In fact, while mortgage applications are up, the report doesn't distinguish between refinances, purchases, and those that are trying multiple times to get a loan. With guidelines more restrictive, the same borrower trying over and over to get the same loan will become a bigger phenomenon.

The refinancing boom is in full swing but what isn't clear yet is its effect. It certainly isn't clear if the refinancing boom has had any effect on buying. Furthermore, because only those with a perfect credit profile can now get financing, it isn't clear what lowering their rates will do. Anecdotally, I have found that many of these borrowers are simly shortening the term from 30 years to 20 years, etc.

The problem as I see it with manipulating rates down is that ultimately their will be a very big boomerang on interest rates. Since this is being done with extremely loose monetary policy, at some point that will be inflationary and cause all long term rates, including mortgages, to go up. If this doesn't have its desired effect now, it may be disastrous later on.

As such, the most important data will be the next round of data on housing sales? If the lower rates transfer into more housing sales, then this new refinancing boom may go a long way toward stabilizing housing. If, on the other hand, it's only a refinancing boom, it may ultimately have a counter productive effect. That's because this new boom will fit folks with unusually low rates and cause many not to want to move because rates in the future will be much higher.

Rhino-liberal Kaus Attacks UAW

No surprise but another sign of the tough sledding Labor will have in the Obama era....

Kausfiles : PATCO in Reverse?

Cooking the Books

As to the absurd notion that George W. Bush has read several hundred books since 2005, I can't offer much beyond what Steven Benen and Matt Stoler have already provided. In the very least, this is an elaborate put-on by Rove; to be slightly less charitable, his insistence that Bush devoted time this year to reading Jacobo Timerman's Prisoner Without a Name -- a book about torture, among other familiar ills -- is sickening.

Or perhaps it's just as well. Bush "reads" books in the same sense that his government "adheres" to the Geneva Conventions.

Crab Pulsar Wind Nebula

New Hampshire Senate: The Polls Didn’t Lie

By Nathan L. Gonzales

Even though New Hampshire Sen. John Sununu (R) trailed former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D) in the polls for almost two years, that didn’t stop some GOP operatives from maintaining a sliver of optimism about the race, even in the campaign’s final months.

But Republicans were too focused on the margin between the Senator and his Democratic opponent (whom he defeated six years ago in a better political environment) in public polls and in private GOP surveys and didn’t put enough weight on Sununu’s standing in ballot tests in the race.

In 35 public polls taken from March 2007 through the end of October 2008, Sununu trailed in all but one of them. A December 2007 American Research Group poll showed the Republican with an astounding 11-point lead, which was a clear outlier.

A crop of polls in early to mid-September showed Sununu narrowing a consistent double-digit gap to single digits, as the Senator invoked his campaign plan. Unlike some of his colleagues, Sununu chose not to advertise early, and instead kept his campaign cash until the fall.

While Shaheen’s lead narrowed below double digits in the fall, Sununu’s number remained unchanged — stuck in the low 40s. The strange December ARG survey was the only public poll in which the Senator exceeded 45 percent in a ballot test.

In the end, Sununu lost to Shaheen 52 percent to 45 percent.

The Republican’s decision to save his money until the fall probably didn’t hurt his chances. Some of his Republican colleagues advertised early (Gordon Smith in Oregon and Elizabeth Dole in North Carolina) and still lost re-election.

But Sununu was banking on Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) competing in and even potentially winning New Hampshire in the presidential contest (McCain wound up losing the state by 9 points) and hoping that the 2006 GOP bloodbath in the state was an aberration.

That proved to be wishful thinking. And what’s more, Sununu received support from only 37 percent of female voters against Shaheen — the lowest total by a Republican Senate incumbent in the country.

This story first appeared on RollCall.com on December 1, 2008. 2008 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

The Pelosi GTxi SS/RT

The Iowahawk video showing you the car of the future ... today!

Here's the original version: LEMON

At Season's End

The regular season of Major League Baseball is at an end. That is always a bummer to me. One of the reasons that I like baseball so much is that it is played every day. Every day something interesting happens. Of course the playoffs are here, but there is not much joy in those for me this year. No Braves. No A's. No Giants. At least there are no Yankess or Mets, though...

It is always fun to look back at the season, and of course, to speculate on the future. Who should win the awards? And, who should win in the postseason? Being a numbers man, the awards are the most fun to examine.

AL MVP
This is a close race because there are no outstanding candidates. In fact, top AL hitters were significantly weaker than NL hitters this year. If Lance Berkman or Chipper Jones was in the AL, you could make a very strong case for them as MVP... Let's look at a couple of relevant stats. First, runs created:

1.) Grady Sizemore, 128
2.) Josh Hamilton, 122.8
3.) Dustin Pedroia, 120.2
4.) Nick Markakis, 118.4
5.) Aubrey Huff, 116.5

That is a nice advantage for Grady Sizemore. One reason for the advantage over the other players is that he played a lot and lead off, leading to a lot of plate appearances. Still he had a very good season. Who would guess that a lead-off hitter would have 33 home runs and 98 walks? Perhaps he should not be hitting lead-off... A more weighted number is runs created per 27 outs. Here is that top five.

1.) Milton Bradley, 8.97
2.) Alex Rodriguez, 7.89
3.) Kevin Youkilis, 7.8
4.) Carlos Quentin, 7.67
5.) Nick Markakis, 7.42

Only one hold-over from the previous top five, and that is the very underrated Markakis. Perhaps he is the MVP? Perhaps. The other leaders in total runs created are all in the top eleven in runs created per 27 outs. For a final measure, let's look at the top 5 in VORP.

1.) Alex Rodriguez, 65.6
2.) Grady Sizemore, 62.7
3.) Dustin Pedroia, 62.3
4.) Aubrey Huff, 58.4
5.) Josh Hamilton, 57.1

Another very different top five! Even missing some games, A-Rod provided the most "value" for his team. Don't tell Yankee fans this, as I am sure they are working on a way to blame their postseason absence on A-Rod. I can just imagine "Ah, Moose got us 20 wins, if only A-Rod could have hit some!"

From a pure statistical consideration, Milton Bradley was the most "potent" hitter, but only played 126 games. Throw him out, and it sure looks like you would have to go with A-Rod as MVP, once again. If I had a vote, that is who I would go with.

That is not going to happen, and everybody knows it. People like to vote for players who are on "winners". You have to be clearly the best (and even that is not good enough often) to get a MVP trophy and be on a team that is not playing in October. So the people they list are folks like Boston's Pedroia and Youkilis, as well as Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer from the Twins. If Carlos Quentin had not broken his hand during a temper tantrum, he would surely be a front runner. The other name I've heard is Francisco Rodriguez, from the Angels.

Given that, it would seem that Pedroia has the advantage over the other "candidates."

NL MVP
This one is a little easier. Albert Pujols lead the league in all of the stats mentioned previously. He was clearly the best hitter in the league, and nobody is really arguing this one. Ryan Howard's .251 average pretty much guaranteed that he is not in the mix. He is the only guy with "traditional" stats (HRs/RBIs) that beat Pujols, and he plays for a division winner. He also finished very strong, just as his team did, coming from behind to pass the Mets in the last month. But there's no chance of this argument working! Let us hope not at least...

AL Cy Young
This is viewed as a two horse race between Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay. That is good, but that is how it should be. They were far and away the two best pitchers in the AL. Nobody was even remotely close. Most people think that Lee will win because, well because he is a winner. His 22 wins jumps out. He also led the league in ERA. It is rare for a pitcher to lead in both of those stats and not win the Cy Young. For what it's worth, he led the league in VORP as well, edging out Halladay. You can make nice arguments about how pitched against weaker compettition, but it's hard to imagine too many people buying that. Cliff Lee should win and will win.

NL Cy Young
Now this is more interesting. Once again a lot of people think it should be a two-horse race. Once again they are right, but they've got the wrong horses. Most people think it is between Brandon Webb and Tim Lincecum. This may indeed be the two "finalists" for the award, but it should not be that way. Webb was nowhere near as good as Lincecum. He just has a lot more wins, and people get carried away over wins. So Lincecum should be Cy Young, right?
I won't argue against it, especially since I root for the Giants against most teams. However, there is a guy who has been just as good, and maybe even a little better than Lincecum: Johan Santana. He edged Lincecum in ERA, and in VORP (73.4 to 72.5.) Statistically, over the course of the season, he was worth about one extra run (total) more than Lincecum. By comparison, Cliff Lee edged Halladay by about 3.5 runs in VORP.
If you start making the "they played for a winner" argument, then clearly Santana has the edge over Lincecum. You can take that one step further. The Mets were battling the Phillies for the NL East crown this weekend. On Saturday they sent Santana out on short rest and he delivered better than you could hope for by throwing a complete game shutout while striking out nine. I think "clutch" is an illusion, but most people belive in it and I am sure they would say that Santana was as clutch as it comes. He definitely did everything he could to get his team in to the playoffs.
So if people were talking about Lincecum vs. Santana, I would guess they would pick Santana. But they are not. They are only mentioning Lincecum vs. Webb. Lincecum is the clear choice there. Personally if I had a vote ... I would vote for Santana. He has been a little better. The NL East is much better (in terms of hitters) than the NL West.

Obama 3.5; Labor .5 - Biden Picks Jared Berstein as Economic Adviser

In a telling sign that American workers will be sitting at the back of the bus in the Obama administration, the first pro-labor appointment to the new Administration was made by VICE President Joe Biden.?

Economist Jared Bernstein has served for years as a pro-AFL-CIO economist at the Washington D.C. based Economic Policy Institute. Given the tensions between Biden and Obama on various issues during the campaign, including battles over the influence of the race-based politics of the Bill Ayers led group in the Obama camp, this appointment will reinforce the awareness of organized labor of their relative weakness in the Administration. Bernstein was not on the stage when the big guns of the President's economic team were named last week.?

The A-team includes Paul Volcker (a notorious anti-labor figure from the Carter/Reagan era), Larry Summers (a free trader and de-regulator from the Clinton era) and Tim Geithner (a friend of Wall Street and acolyte of Summers).

Biden Picks Jared Berstein as Economic Adviser washingtonpost.com

Harold Pinter

R.I.P.

Since I need to go open presents and such, allow me to delegate to Roy's old appraisal. Make sure to stick around for the decimation of the inevitable Aesthetic Stalinism that followed his Nobel Prize ("Why don't Kimball and Steyn go make a Thatcher Prize medal out of paperclips and a yogurt lid and give it to Tom Clancy?").

A conned crony

Here's an incredible story of an Umno crony in Bandar Razak who was given a contract during the March general election for 500,000 t-shirts, 500,000 stickers, 200,000 vests, 120,000 towels, 300,000 pens, 380,000 caps, and nearly a million other souvenir items but till today has not paid a single sen for them!

So the crony lost a lot of money and had to lay off workers.

Last week, someone from the Umno Terengganu Umno State Liaison committee paid a visit to our suffering crony with an order for 45,000 T-shirts, 5,000 caps, 2,000 umbrellas, 10,000 pens, 2,000 vests, 3,000 bath towels and other items meant for the Kuala Terengganu by-election (nomination day Jan 7, polling Jan 17).

Our poor crony whines h e r e that he has received not a single sen in deposit for the orders! He told blogger Bujai that the party he loves is killing him.

I say the crony is killing himself!

Caroline and the Grey Lady

How is it that, in an age where a mixed-race man from a broken home, the product of international upbringing and no inherited fortune, can be elected president, we are still talking about the fucking Kennedys?

It seems that even assholes like Michael Weiss haveno use for Caroline.

Little Blue Pills...

Creative COIN:

U.S intelligence officials use "novel incentives," but this is not limited to Viagra. Sometimes, "notoriously fickle warlords and chieftains" can be won over with tools, school equipment, and surgical assistance. But it appears the "pharmaceutical enhancements for aging patriarchs with slumping libidos" can be effective with older tribal officials.

Why not just hand out cash? It doesn't work as well -- Afghan leaders with U.S. dollars are recognized for having cooperated with the unpopular Americans. And with Taliban commanders, drug dealers, and even Iranian agents offering enticements, too, U.S. officials have had to get creative.

The key, one American said, is to "find a way to meet the informant's personal needs in a way that keeps him firmly on your side but leaves little or no visible trace." Viagra obviously fits the bill.

It's all about the patriarchy, I guess. Via NB.

...I was also wondering about this.

Blags

Sam Rockwell as Rod Blagojevich. I can see that working...

Here's your chance....

To carve a pumpkin online. The only one I'll do this year.....

Thanks to Knox Views Ashvegas.

Sime Darby blocks blog

We all know that Sime Darby Watch has been a massive pain in Sime Darby's arse. And so we should not be surprised that the Sime Darby's management has decided to block access to SDW at Sime Darby, here. All employees will from today have to go the a cyber cafe or Chawan or Starbucks to read SDW or/and post comments.

Sime Darby is not the first shut out a blog. In June 2006 the management of NSTP firewalled Rocky's Bru, which was hardly a couple of weeks old then [For Adults Only?].

Brenden Pereira, who was the Group Editor of NST then, is now head of Fox Communications, which advises Sime Darby.

A Liberal's View of Patriotism

I am really glad that Joel Stein penned this piece about the differences between Conservatives and Liberals and their love of America. I am glad because not only is it one of the most ridiculous pieces I have ever written but it also unmasks how many Liberals feel not only about their country but about their ideological opponents. The other day, I had a debate with a liberal colleague about universal health care and he told me that I was stupid because I didn't realize that health care is a right and that our government must do everything to make sure that everyone has health insurance. In other words, I was stupid because I disagreed with their position.

This is essentially the position that Stein takes. Conservatives are so patriotic, in the view of Stein, that it makes us stupid. Whereas liberals, according to him, aren't blinded by their patriotism, and so they are able to see that which dumb Conservatives like me are blind to. What's most amazing about Stein's piece is that it is so short on any detail about why he is right. He starts his explanation as such.

Conservatives feel personally blessed to have been born in the only country worth living in. I, on the other hand, just feel lucky to have grown up in a wealthy democracy. If it had been Australia, Britain, Ireland, Canada, Italy, Spain, France, Luxembourg, Belgium, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Japan, Israel or one of those Scandinavian countries with more relaxed attitudes toward sex, that would have been fine with me too.

Now, there's no doubt that our freedom and democracy account for much of our greatness. It's also true that the U.S. is not the only country in the world that has these things. Yet, is Stein really saying that there is no difference between the U.S. and Luxembourg? Is Stein really dismissing the idea that it was the U.S. most centrally responsible for bringing peace to hundreds of millions of people throughout the world including in many of the countries that he lists? When was the last time Luxembourg confronted an evil tyrant and freed millions from their grip? In fact, it is the U.S. itself that is most responsible for protecting Luxembourg from invasion. Stein can go live there but he will still be afforded the protection of the greatest military in the history of the world when he does. It seems that Stein is just oblivious to the fact that Europe has nothing more than a token military to speak of and that's because they rely on the U.S. for protection. I guess protecting most of the world from evil and tyranny is something to be marginalized and disregarded in the mind of such an elite intellectual as Stein.

Then, Stein lays out his "laundry list" of problems with America.

This doesn't mean I'm not fascinated by American history, impressed by our Constitution or don't appreciate our optimism and entrepreneurial spirit. In fact, I love everything Hannity listed on his TV special other than Madonna. But there are plenty of things I don't like about America: our foreign policy, our religious fundamentalism, our provincialism, our intellectual laziness, our acceptance of sweat suits in public.

I suppose that Stein would like the neutral foreign policy of a country like Luxembourg, however there is something that Stein misses. When your country is only a few hundred thousand people, you can afford to stay neutral. Being the one and only super power, we are not afforded the luxury of inaction. I would be curious to know what specifically he doesn't like about our foreign policy but that he doesn't mention. No one is saying that America is perfect, however I would say that America is still the greatest country in the world even if we allow sweat suits in public. What's more, he considers America a country of "religious fundamentalism". It's hard to know what he means by those, but I assume by this he means we don't totally shun religion into some back corner. I suppose because we allow those of genuine and deep faith to have a platform, this makes us religious fundamentalists because to secularists like Stein the only religion that is good is one he knows nothing about.

Here is how he finishes his supposition.

When I ran the idea that liberals don't love America as much as conservatives by talk-show host Glenn Beck, who will move from CNN Headline News to Fox News next month, he totally agreed with me, which is precisely why I called him. "It's absolutely true, deep love. As a parent loves a child," he said. "But I think liberals laugh that off, the way the rest of the country laughs off the love Texans have for their state. Texans don't think, 'Oklahoma, you suck.' Well, yes they do -- but they don't think other states suck. They just have a love for the republic of Texas. I don't have disdain for other countries. Well, except for France."

I asked Beck why Democrats rarely share his overwhelming sense of American exceptionalism and Francophobia. "I think it's because in the late 1800s up until the 1930s, the progressive movement started to think the European ideals are pretty good, that it's one big world," he said. "Well, it's not. If you look at all the countries like people, there are differences between people. And I happen to like this person the best." When I look at the countries like people, I love Sweden the best.

I would remind Stein that the so called European model has produced a continent in which the population doesn't have enough children to survive. It has a stagnating economy and frankly what we are seeing is that country after country is looking to get away from its nanny state and go toward the free market ideals that we have here. In France, that's how Nicholas Sarkozy won and in Ireland they cut their corporate tax dramatically and spurred economic growth. I would remind Stein that the U.S. economy has a larger GDP than the next four combined. I would remind Stein that the European model has created stagnating GDP growth and a population that is rapidly deteriorating.

In effect, Stein is right. Generally, Conservatives are more patriotic than Liberals. That's because we are able to appreciate that which makes this country great and the greatest in the world. I will let Liberals espouse the ideas of European ism, moral relativism, and secularism. I will stick to all the traditions that have made America great.

News on the Welsh Language

It is the question that has been on everybody's lips for the last 16 months, when will the Welsh Language Legislative Competence Order be published? It is not just the opposition who have been frustrated by the lack of news, Plaid Cymru Ministers have also struggled with this process and have been positively outraged at the hurdles they have had to jump to meet the One Wales Government commitment to deliver on this piece of legislation.

The nearest we have come to a date was during the debate on the Queen's Speech last week when the Secretary of State for Wales, Paul Murphy told the Assembly:

With regard to the Welsh-language LCO, that came to us about a month ago. It has now completed its passage, so to speak, through Whitehall departments, and it has now returned to my office. I hope that, in the new year that we will be in a position, jointly, to see that published. Again, there are issues that require careful examination, and I know that the Welsh Assembly Government has looked in detail at its wording and the details behind it. It is a work in progress.

A question to the Counsel General later that afternoon got us no further. Now however, we have a date but that does not seem to have emerged from any formal announcement by the Welsh Assembly Government. It appeared on an e-mail received by all Assembly Members earlier today from Cymdeithas yr Iaith Gymraeg.

The Welsh Language Society are to hold a New Year's Rally at 2pm on Saturday 10th January. They tell us that this rally has been timed to coincide with the publication of the Legislative Competence Order for the Welsh Language:

The purpose of the rally is to highlight the principle that all legislative powers for the Welsh Language are transferred to the Welsh Assembly, and that we the people of Wales are responsible for our own comprehensive language measure that will ensure linguistic rights, equal status and a language commissioner that will allow Wales to develop into a fair and bilingual country.

Fair enough, but why has the Minister chosen this route to announce the fact that agreement has at last been reached? Why has the date been e-mailed to Assembly Members during recess when we are not in a position to scrutinise the Minister and why has it come from a third party?

Tracking Santa

Just in case you cannot wait to see what presents you are getting tomorrow, it might be worth checking up on where exactly Santa Claus is. Thanks to the wonders of satellite technology it is now possible to do so here. I particularly like the inset videos.

Update: The history of this tracker is set out here:

According to NORAD, Santa began his latest flight early Wednesday at the International Date Line in the Pacific Ocean. Historically, Santa visits the South Pacific first, then New Zealand and Australia. NORAD points out that only Santa knows his route.

Last year, NORAD's Santa tracking center answered 94,000 calls and responded to 10,000 e-mails. About 10.6 million visitors went to the Web site, which can be viewed in English, Spanish, French, Italian, German, Japanese and Chinese.

NORAD's holiday tradition can by traced to 1955, when a Colorado Springs newspaper printed a Sears, Roebuck & Co. ad telling children of a phone number to talk to Santa. The number was one digit off, and the first child to get through reached the Continental Air Defense Command, NORAD's predecessor.

Col. Harry W. Shoup answered. Shoup's daughter, Terri Van Keuren, said her dad, now 91, was surprised to hear that the little voice on the other end thought he was Santa.

"Dad thought, `What the heck? This must be some kind of code,'" said Van Keuren, 59.

Shoup, described by his daughter as "just a nut about," didn't want to break the boy's heart, so he sounded a booming "Ho, ho, ho!" and pretended to be Santa Claus

Enough calls followed that Shoup assigned an officer to answer them while the problem was fixed. But Shoup and the staff he was directing to "locate" Santa on radar ended up embracing the idea. NORAD picked up the tradition when it was formed 50 years ago.

"If we didn't do it, truly I don't know who else would track Santa," Maj.Stacia Reddish said.

The task that began with no computers and only a 60-by-80-foot glass map of North America now includes two big screens on a wall showing the world and information on each country Santa Claus visits. It took off with the Web site's 1997 launch, Reddish said.

Maintaining the Balance...

Surface to Air Missile technology is one of those areas where small shifts in tactical capability could have large strategic effects; if reliable, effective, difficult to counter surface to air missiles become cheap and available, the most common manner in which rich countries pound the bejeezus out of poor countries loses much of its attraction. This possibility is not lost on the USN or the USAF. David Hambling:

Soon after radar-guided anti-aircraft missiles became a threat, planners realized that the simplest way to stop them was to take out the radar. These radars make an easy target; in radio terms, they are equivalent to lighthouses, radiating brightly. So in 1958 the U.S. introduced the Shrike, an "Anti-Radiation Missile" that homed in on enemy radar and proved invaluable in the Vietnam War. The modern successor is the AGM-88 HARM High Speed Antiradiation missile, which has longer range and a speed of over mach 2. "No U.S. aircraft has ever been lost to surface-to-air missiles when HARM has been flying cover," Mike Vigue, HARM Growth Manager at Raytheon, told me.

The problem with this type of missile is that it relies on the enemy radar being turned on. Once they spot a missile barreling towards them, the operators can turn off the radar so it has nothing to home in on. So the mission is known as Suppression of Enemy Air Defence or SEAD: you're not likely to kill them, but you can force enemy radar to shut down, making the skies safe for friendly aircraft.

All that changes when you can fit HARM with a GPS module that allows it to accurately pinpoint the location of the radar emitter. The addition means that even if the radar turns off, the missile can still hit it precisely.

Raytheon's upgrade is called HDAM, for HARM Destruction of Enemy Air Defenses Attack Module. It's being built for the Air Force. And it incorporates both GPS and an inertial measurement unit with a fiber-optic gyro. Raytheon won’t say exactly how accurate it is, but unlike other anti-radiation missiles which rely on a shrapnel warhead, HDAM has achieved "metal on metal" hits on radar targets, both emitting and non-emitting.

Council Winners

First place with 2 2/3 points! - The Razor - The Symbol of Oppression
Second place with 1 2/3 points - (T*) - Joshuapundit - Cheney Slaps Biden Upside The Head
Second place with 1 2/3 points - (T*) - Mere Rhetoric - Smug Liberal Sophistication Undisturbed By Decades Of Disastrously Wrong Domestic And International Predictions
Third place with 1 points - Bookworm Room - Destruction of Property
Fourth place with 2/3 points - (T*) - Soccer Dad - Don’t get too chummy with that flaming dummy
Fourth place with 2/3 points - (T*) - Rhymes With Right - Impeach Jerry Brown
Fourth place with 2/3 points - (T*) - The Glittering Eye - How to Give a Bonus
Fifth place with 1/3 point - Cheat-Seeking Missiles - Gay Anger At Warren Unwarranted
Winning Non-Council Submissions
First place with 2 1/3 points! - John Stossel - Arrogance and Conceit Won’t Fix the Economy
Second place with 1 2/3 points - (T*) - Larrey Anderson/American Thinker - Climate Crisis = Logic Crisis
Second place with 1 2/3 points - (T*) - Dhimmi Watch - Fitzgerald: If we cut off the jizya, could things become even worse?
Third place with 1 1/3 points - (T*) - Pajamas Media - The Op-Ed the New York Times Wouldn’t Run
Third place with 1 1/3 points - (T*) - Counterterrorism blog - Jihad by the Shoe: Who Was Behind it and why?
Third place with 1 1/3 points - (T*) - Simon Deng - Hudson New York - Bishop Tutu and “Israeli Apartheid”
Fourth place with 2/3 points - The American Spectator - Coffee and Closure
Fifth place with 1/3 point - Jewcy - Madoff the Jew: The Media’s Hypocritical Obsession With the Fraudster’s Faith